An assessment of the accuracy of the weekly (point) predictions produced by each of a large number of prediction procedures over the entire course of the 2018 season (including the bowl games) is available on the website http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/. The coverage includes the model-based prediction procedure described herein (along with the periodic revisions which the procedure underwent during the course of the season) under the heading Methodology. The coverage also includes the betting line (at each of 3 different points during the week).
Following the end of the season, a retrospective study was undertaken of the accuracy of the weekly predictions produced by the version of the model-based prediction procedure that was operative as of the end of the season. The accuracy of those predictions was compared with the accuracy of the predictions provided by the betting line; the version of the betting line used for this purpose was (with a small number of exceptions) one posted on Tuesday by the bookmaker William Hill. Some results from the retrospective study are provided by the contents of the following pdf file: