2019 College-Football Season

An assessment of the accuracy of the weekly (point) predictions produced by each of a large number of prediction procedures over the entire course of the 2019 season (including the bowl games) is available on the website http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/. The coverage includes the model-based prediction procedure described herein (along with the periodic revisions which the procedure underwent prior to the beginning of the 2019 season) under the heading Methodology. The coverage also includes the betting line (at each of 3 different points during the week).

Following the end of the 2019 season, a retrospective study was undertaken of the accuracy of the weekly predictions produced during the 2019 season by the version of the model-based prediction procedure that was operative during that season. The accuracy of those predictions was compared with the accuracy of the predictions provided by the betting line; the version of the betting line used for this purpose was (with a small number of exceptions) one posted on Tuesday by the bookmaker William Hill. Some results from the retrospective study are provided by the contents of the following pdf file: